Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Since 1990, he has been an active professional with major financial companies, and for the past 11 years he has been managing personal accounts. This direct experience to trading as led him to the creation of various computerized trading systems that operate in the direction , counter direction and congestion phases of various global markets. Angelo Airaghi is often quoted in major national and international media.
**Year end bull market for the European currency?**
November 27, 2006
Various form of analysis seem to point to this direction, especially if its price will remain above the important support at 1.2860. Latest move has found resistance at 1.310. Consequently, a swing above 1.3185 is now necessary to target 1.33, eventually 1.35.
The long pattern consolidation, that began in May, appears to have ended mid November with the decisive move above the resistance at 1.29. The slope of the 50/100/200 day moving averages are strongly pointing upward giving more substance to latest move. Furthermore, the second part of the year is not seasonally favourable to the US dollar.
Euro is currently discounting a 25 basis point hike by the European Central Bank on December 7th. Recent comments by European officials have marked the need to control inflation and keep the economy in track for further growth.
It would be interesting to see how this move will develop over the medium/long term. In fact, latest economic developments have decreased the possibilities for some changes, in either direction, in the monetary policy in the US.
Economic data has been encouraging in the past weeks. The November National Association of Homebuilders survey has shown a surprise rise to 33 from 30. Retails sales rose 0.3% excluding autos and gasoline. Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys showed stronger than expected gains.
Emanuel Balarie Senior Market Strategist
ebalarie@wisdomfinancialinc.com
Direct toll free: 866-465-0017
International: 949-548-2021
Emanuel Balarie is a highly regarded advisor who advises high net worth individuals and institutions on the commodity markets and managed futures investments. Mr. Balarie's research has been published internationally and has appeared recently in The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Money Week, as well as on CNBC and MSNBC. You can find out more about Mr. Balarie and his services at Wisdom Financial, Inc.
The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.
