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Dennis Smith
Archer Financial Services
Focus: Livestock

Phone: 877-377-7905
E-Mail: dennis.smith@archerfinancials.com


MORNING LIVESTOCK REPORT
Thursday May 6, 2010

LEAN HOGS
Lean hog futures closed lower to sharply lower on Wednesday. There was no real feature in the spreads with the summer and fall contracts all 200 to 220 lower. The selling of futures appears to be tied to several items. First, the strength in the dollar could prove to be a depressant for pork export sales. Second, it appears the problems in Europe might slow our economic recovery. Third, it appears the speculative money is beginning to slide out of the hog market. Fourth, seasonally, it’s normal for hog futures to top at this time of year. And fifth, I’m starting to pick up a lot of packer resistance to higher prices as processing margins have been squeezed. I’ll be approaching rallies from a cautious, hedging standpoint from here forward. On the other side of the coin, I’m still hearing that packers will be looking for hogs for next week, cash bids for next week will be firm to higher and product still has upside potential.

LIVE CATTLE
June live cattle futures edged into fresh contract highs on Wednesday in an impressive and solid technical performance. The June is being driven by the cash with packers paying $1.00/lb for live inventory this week. Thus, the basis is supporting the June futures which closed yesterday at 9670. The show list has been moved, thus, there likely won’t be any additional cash trade this week. It also appears highly likely that cash for next week will be firm to higher. Beef packer processing margins, in sharp contrast to the pork packer, are very profitable. They have the full incentive to keep buying cattle, taking immediate delivery and moving the beef. Beef export sales have been extremely active this spring and domestic demand for ground beef has been “red hot”. I’ve been sliding out of length in the June and Aug and we’ve also stepped up our hedging. I’m using option strategies including risk reversal strategies to provide hedge protection for production for the remainder of 2010. Call me for specifics.

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