Today, Van Heusen announced that it would buy Tommy Hilfiger for 3 billion dollars in the next quarter. This will make it one of the largest clothing companies in the world.1 The market is down before the open on fears of bank reform and Greece's issues. What is the difference from last week to this week? The market could be in for a sell off as it hits the technical level of 1150.00. The banking bill could stabilize fear and give investors their confidence back. Could this gain back consumer trust as well? This depends as more power could be given to the Federal Reserve Board - which may be a negative to stockholders and/or investors. In the euro zone, members are in talks to stabilize their countries from default risk. Emergency funds could be the answer, but are Greece, Spain and Italy too deep in the hole to be helped? The ratings could be changed for the government debt in this area from AAA.2 Remember - waiting for bank reform by governments may take time to implement.3 Capital One announced that credit card defaults were down to 10.19% in Feb from 10.41% in Jan. This is good news but may not be enough to pick up the market.

The Energy markets were mixed last week as equities were mildly higher, the dollar a bit stronger, oil slightly lower, and Nat Gas the biggest loser in the energy complex. Crude Oil gained to new 2010 highs at $83.11 even as the USD is still gaining against other major currencies and equities are still higher. Even as the price started to come down to Earth on Friday below $81 the crude curve continued to strengthen in the back as traders got squeezed out of short positions. Many traders are now looking at backwardation in the coming months and have gotten out of their short Dec10/Dec11 positions (which are up to the strongest point in many months) at -140.

It looks as though the price of the oil market is a bit rich up here and needs to come down below $80 but a lot of traders are still trying to buy the pullback solely on what is happening with the WTI spreads. I believe if this market can get to $79.40 there will be a quick liquidation as everyone gets out of their longs as this seems like a very critical support point on the chart. I could see crude liquidating down to the $77 level if this critical support point gets broken. For now it seems as though many people still want to buy any of the pullbacks here.

The same cannot be said for the action in the Nat Gas as this market saw prices depreciate another 4.2% or $0.193/mmbtu. Nat Gas has been in a downtrend since the middle of February and all signs continue to point toward prices possibly heading even lower before beginning to stabilize. I see the $4.00 point as good stabilization but with the weather heading into spring temperatures in the Northeast by the end of the week this market might just get there before you know it.

Effective this morning, Monday, March 15, 2010 and through and including trade date Friday, March 26, 2010, ICE is implementing a temporary change to the opening time for electronic trading of Sugar, Coffee and Cocoa. Sugar, and Coffee Contracts will open for trading at 4:30 am NY time (8:30 am GMT) and Cocoa contracts will open at 5:00 am NY time (9:00 am GMT) instead of the usual 3:30 am NY time (8:30 am GMT) and 4:00 am NY time (9:00 am GMT), respectively. There will also be a temporary change to the daily settlement window for the Cocoa Contracts, from 12:48 to 12:50 pm NY time; at the end of this period, the window will revert back to the normal 11:48 to 11:50am time. This temporary change to the opening time for these products is due to the start of Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. on March 14, and will last through the start of British Summertime on March 28.1

With the US $ Index moving below 8000 last week and closing on its low, most of the Soft complex prices firmed on Friday - the exception being coffee. Coffee prices didn't respond as did the others among the softs likely due in part to the April option series expiring - although admittedly there is a part of me that feels the price action could also be a shakeout prior to a better move up. Coffee prices have a history of "shaking the trees" before making a major move, thus making it difficult for weak handed players to participate which is frustrating (and perhaps annoying) to some. Look to see if coffee prices stage a move above 136 basis May futures. Such a move might gain legs and momentum sufficient to bust a move. Otherwise, watch and see if 128.50 is seen.

Sugar values had dropped a staggering (or should I say sobering) 11% which is huge. The lows, made Wednesday (and tested both Thursday and Friday), have provided support and may still do so. The other big feature is that option volatility hasn't dropped off. Obviously being a function of how predictable a market's price action is, option volatility might tend to lessen as prices head straight down, but that's just it - they bounced around each day in wide ranges and in unpredictable fashion. I look for Sugar prices to try and mellow out and option volatility to ease as prices bounce.

Cocoa… Don't know much that could have caused the strength up from the lows other than the currency play. I think this market a valuable candidate for owning cheap puts as I feel there is a potential for a vigorous move down.

Precious metals had a very tough week as prices pulled back significantly with gold trending down to $1,100 and silver briefly trading below $17. The USD slid by a very small percentage against other major currencies but this did not affect the gold market as prices still declined. Silver still looks to be the better play with prices stabilizing better than gold, but it is interesting how the Euro seems to be breaking out a bit from the USD trading at $1.3760 - its highest level in 3 weeks. Gold cannot muster any movement to the upside. I still see gold trying to trend lower below $1,100 before getting back on its feet. Look to buy some dips below $1,100 here with silver a potential play at $16.

Copper has really had a tough time trying to get through the $3.50 level as prices are slowly tilting down to the $3.30 mark. If you look at the daily chart you will see lower highs with lower lows as this indicates a downward trend with the slow stochastics still pointing down. Look at short positions this week, aiming for a chance to buy back at lower prices later on.