A ONE-STOP PORTAL OF INFORMATION FOR FUTURES AND COMMODITIES TRADERS


Jerry T. Stowell
Country Futures
Focus:Grains, Livestock
Website: www.countryfutures.com
E-mail: jstowell@kansas.net


COUNTRY FUTURES - July 5, 2012

COUNTRY COMMENTS BY JERRY STOWELL

CATTLE

By: Jerry Stowell

At 10:17 Live Cattle are anywhere from 22 higher August to as much as 80 higher February. August Feeders are 40 lower and Dec corn is trading 20 higher. 148.12 was the latest CME Feeder Index. Choice Beef closed Tuesday night at 193.22 down 141.

Cash Fed cattle asking prices started the day around 120. Bids are 114. Our cash call is 117-118, 1-2 higher.

Corn Futures continue to influence cattle futures as they have been the past couple weeks. We really feel that most of the bullish supply news will be factored into price by Friday's close. If so deferred Live Cattle contracts will pull back as well. Looking at the pure cattle fundamentals themself we do feel that fed supplies will be on the downhill slope in about 2 weeks. Hopefully the Fed Cattle will retreat back to the mid-120's by late August. Beef cut-out values should bottom out very soon as well. Packers will slowly begin losing leverage on the feed yards. Hold short Feb LC for now.

GRAINS

Grains Update by Darrell Holaday

Not surprisingly, the grain market is has been sharply higher today with the surprise being the strength in the wheat sector. Weather is still the driving force as the market euphoria is very strong regarding the ongoing drought in the Midwest. It is was certainly not news that the central part of the US is experiencing hot and dry conditions. Those conditions have been in the forecast for a week, but it does not make the experience any better and there is a lot of public buying of all of the grains.

This euphoria has turned into the emotional Too hot, too dry, and too dark at night so buy it all. That is driving the market higher and looking for other reasons is a waste of time.

The GFS model has changed gradually over the last 48 hours. It is not as wet as it once was for the weekend and early next week, but there is still rain in the model and it remains significantly cooler. The EU model has come around to also showing the cooler temperatures, but overall it is certainly not a wet forecast.

Our contention has been all week that we will score a high this week as the market builds in very dire corn production numbers. The problem early next week will be that it will be difficult to find new bullish information to trade. Deteriorating crop conditions and dry conditions will be baked into the market.

At 12:19 Jul corn is up .37, Dec corn up .22, Jul soy up .49, Nov soy up .43, and wheat is up .27.

THE DATA CONTAINED HEREIN IS BELIEVED TO BE DRAWN FROM RELIABLE SOURCES BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED, NEITHER THE INFORMATION PRESENTED NOR ANY OPINIONS EXPRESSED CONSTITUTE A SOLICITATION OF THE PURCHASE OF SALE OF ANY COMMODITY. THOSE INDIVIDUALS ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL RECIPIENTS OF THIS REPORT. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. EACH INVESTOR MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. ALL RECOMMENDATIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.







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